Race 6A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 12.6% 12.4% 15.8% 12.4% 11.5% 11.6% 8.9% 6.2% 3.8% 3.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Caroline Bayless 8.8% 9.7% 10.2% 9.5% 10.4% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.0% 7.8% 5.8% 2.8% 0.4%
Sarah Burn 7.3% 7.8% 9.2% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 9.6% 9.0% 9.3% 7.4% 6.0% 3.9% 0.5%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 29.1% 23.8% 16.4% 11.9% 8.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Shakespeare 4.2% 4.0% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5% 6.0% 7.4% 8.8% 8.9% 11.2% 14.6% 15.2% 4.2%
Lucy Brock 6.1% 7.8% 8.1% 6.9% 8.1% 9.8% 10.0% 10.1% 9.4% 8.6% 8.4% 6.2% 0.9%
Libby Redmond 5.8% 5.5% 6.0% 7.2% 7.9% 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 8.6% 11.1% 10.1% 8.5% 2.2%
Emma AuBuchon 3.7% 3.4% 4.5% 5.9% 5.8% 7.2% 7.2% 8.5% 9.7% 11.3% 13.7% 15.4% 3.6%
Samantha Jensen 3.2% 2.2% 3.1% 4.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.8% 6.4% 8.9% 10.7% 12.8% 25.0% 7.8%
J.J. Smith 6.8% 8.4% 7.6% 9.3% 9.8% 8.8% 9.6% 10.7% 9.6% 8.0% 6.9% 3.7% 0.8%
Madison Bashaw 5.9% 6.7% 6.5% 8.9% 7.8% 8.7% 9.2% 10.2% 9.8% 9.3% 9.5% 6.3% 1.3%
Caroline Benson 6.2% 7.6% 7.3% 8.3% 8.8% 10.1% 9.9% 9.2% 10.2% 8.8% 7.8% 4.2% 1.4%
Sophia Rey 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 8.6% 77.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.