Race 7A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 13.0% 14.5% 14.3% 12.6% 10.7% 10.2% 8.9% 6.1% 4.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 28.5% 23.2% 16.4% 12.7% 8.4% 4.7% 3.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lucy Brock 7.1% 6.6% 7.3% 7.6% 9.7% 8.6% 8.3% 10.0% 9.3% 8.5% 7.8% 6.5% 2.6%
Samantha Jensen 2.1% 2.9% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 5.5% 6.9% 7.5% 9.2% 13.0% 18.5% 18.9%
Madison Bashaw 6.0% 5.8% 7.1% 6.9% 8.4% 10.1% 9.1% 9.2% 10.2% 8.2% 9.3% 6.3% 3.3%
Emma Shakespeare 3.2% 4.0% 3.8% 5.6% 6.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 9.2% 11.1% 12.8% 12.3% 9.5%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 5.2% 6.1% 5.7% 6.5% 7.3% 9.0% 10.1% 13.2% 14.5% 10.1%
Caroline Benson 6.9% 7.2% 8.6% 8.1% 9.0% 9.4% 10.1% 9.4% 8.0% 7.8% 7.5% 5.6% 2.2%
Sarah Burn 7.2% 9.2% 8.6% 10.0% 9.6% 10.2% 9.7% 9.0% 8.6% 7.8% 4.6% 4.0% 1.4%
Caroline Bayless 8.2% 8.2% 9.4% 10.7% 8.8% 9.7% 9.8% 9.2% 9.2% 7.2% 4.8% 3.4% 1.3%
Libby Redmond 5.5% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 7.4% 7.5% 9.2% 10.1% 10.0% 10.8% 9.5% 8.4% 3.6%
J.J. Smith 7.8% 6.7% 8.3% 8.5% 9.8% 8.9% 8.8% 10.4% 9.1% 8.4% 6.3% 4.7% 2.2%
Hailey Pemberton 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.7% 4.4% 7.2% 9.8% 15.3% 44.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.