Race 8A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 29.2% 20.9% 17.1% 12.4% 8.3% 5.1% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Caroline Bayless 9.4% 9.2% 8.2% 8.3% 9.8% 9.8% 9.2% 10.0% 9.2% 7.3% 5.8% 2.5% 1.2%
Sarah Burn 7.6% 9.2% 9.0% 9.6% 10.1% 9.6% 10.8% 8.2% 8.6% 7.2% 5.5% 3.1% 1.4%
Emma Cowles 13.5% 14.4% 14.4% 12.7% 11.2% 10.2% 7.6% 6.3% 4.6% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Madison Bashaw 5.2% 7.2% 6.8% 7.8% 7.2% 9.6% 8.9% 9.5% 9.2% 10.8% 7.8% 6.9% 3.1%
Caroline Benson 7.7% 6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.3% 8.6% 9.0% 9.4% 9.3% 8.3% 7.8% 5.5% 2.1%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 2.9% 3.6% 4.0% 5.2% 4.8% 5.7% 6.0% 7.9% 10.0% 10.1% 12.3% 14.6% 12.8%
J.J. Smith 5.5% 8.3% 7.8% 9.8% 10.1% 9.8% 9.3% 9.9% 8.9% 6.9% 7.1% 4.7% 2.0%
Lucy Brock 7.2% 6.3% 7.9% 8.2% 8.6% 10.0% 9.0% 9.7% 8.6% 8.3% 7.2% 6.1% 2.8%
Hailey Pemberton 0.9% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 3.8% 3.6% 4.0% 7.9% 9.2% 16.2% 43.0%
Emma Shakespeare 3.4% 4.2% 4.3% 5.5% 5.4% 6.2% 8.1% 8.6% 8.8% 11.2% 12.6% 13.4% 8.2%
Libby Redmond 4.9% 5.2% 6.3% 7.1% 8.6% 7.7% 8.9% 8.5% 10.3% 9.6% 10.2% 8.3% 4.3%
Samantha Jensen 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 2.9% 4.0% 5.2% 5.8% 6.5% 7.5% 9.1% 12.7% 17.9% 18.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.