Race 9A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 15.0% 12.3% 13.4% 12.8% 11.7% 9.7% 8.1% 6.2% 4.9% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 28.6% 22.8% 17.6% 10.8% 8.6% 5.1% 2.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Caroline Bayless 6.5% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 9.4% 10.0% 10.8% 8.4% 9.5% 6.7% 5.5% 3.9% 1.1%
Libby Redmond 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 7.1% 8.6% 8.9% 8.7% 9.0% 10.2% 9.0% 8.2% 8.2% 4.3%
Lucy Brock 5.3% 7.2% 6.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.6% 7.7% 10.6% 8.5% 8.8% 9.2% 7.8% 3.1%
Sarah Burn 8.3% 7.6% 9.3% 10.2% 9.7% 8.8% 9.3% 9.8% 9.0% 7.5% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4%
J.J. Smith 6.8% 8.2% 8.1% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.2% 8.5% 8.2% 9.4% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9%
Emma Shakespeare 3.4% 4.3% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 6.3% 7.4% 7.8% 10.2% 10.2% 12.1% 13.4% 8.9%
Madison Bashaw 6.5% 7.1% 7.1% 8.0% 8.0% 9.3% 10.1% 9.2% 9.8% 8.6% 8.2% 5.4% 2.8%
Samantha Jensen 2.7% 2.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.9% 5.7% 6.8% 7.6% 9.4% 13.0% 17.7% 17.9%
Hailey Pemberton 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 3.6% 4.5% 4.4% 6.0% 9.1% 16.3% 44.9%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 3.1% 4.1% 4.3% 3.8% 6.0% 6.4% 6.7% 7.8% 8.2% 11.4% 12.6% 14.3% 11.2%
Caroline Benson 6.9% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.8% 9.7% 9.7% 9.6% 8.6% 8.9% 7.3% 4.9% 2.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.