Race 11A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lucy Brock 6.7% 7.3% 6.7% 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 9.0% 10.2% 8.8% 9.3% 8.2% 5.9% 2.8%
Libby Redmond 4.3% 5.8% 6.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.4% 10.0% 8.3% 10.7% 8.8% 4.8%
Sarah Burn 8.3% 7.3% 9.4% 10.0% 10.0% 9.3% 9.2% 10.0% 7.3% 7.6% 5.7% 4.2% 1.6%
Caroline Benson 7.3% 7.0% 7.3% 8.4% 9.3% 9.2% 9.0% 7.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7% 5.3% 2.4%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 29.0% 22.2% 17.6% 11.5% 7.7% 5.4% 3.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Caroline Bayless 7.6% 10.2% 9.3% 9.8% 9.3% 10.5% 9.2% 9.2% 8.3% 6.4% 4.9% 3.7% 1.6%
Madison Bashaw 5.8% 6.7% 7.0% 7.0% 8.3% 8.5% 9.3% 10.1% 10.8% 8.1% 8.9% 6.5% 2.9%
Emma Cowles 12.6% 13.5% 13.6% 13.1% 12.0% 10.4% 9.0% 5.7% 4.8% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
J.J. Smith 7.3% 7.5% 8.3% 7.8% 9.1% 9.4% 10.2% 9.3% 8.8% 8.9% 6.2% 4.8% 2.0%
Emma Shakespeare 3.6% 4.0% 4.3% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 9.9% 9.8% 10.2% 11.7% 13.2% 9.5%
Emma AuBuchon 4.5% 4.1% 4.6% 5.1% 6.1% 6.8% 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 11.0% 11.8% 13.0% 10.2%
Hailey Pemberton 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% 5.5% 7.4% 9.2% 16.7% 42.9%
Samantha Jensen 1.8% 2.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.4% 4.7% 6.2% 6.3% 7.7% 9.8% 12.3% 17.5% 19.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.