Race 12A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Libby Redmond 4.8% 6.2% 6.8% 6.0% 7.3% 7.8% 9.6% 10.7% 9.2% 9.8% 9.7% 8.2% 4.0%
Samantha Jensen 1.8% 3.2% 3.5% 2.8% 4.3% 4.3% 5.4% 7.3% 6.7% 8.3% 12.8% 21.3% 18.2%
Sarah Burn 8.1% 8.7% 8.6% 10.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.4% 8.5% 8.9% 7.5% 5.8% 3.9% 1.6%
J.J. Smith 7.2% 6.7% 8.9% 8.5% 8.9% 10.2% 9.2% 9.8% 8.6% 8.3% 7.5% 4.7% 1.5%
Lucy Brock 5.5% 7.2% 7.0% 7.8% 7.9% 9.5% 9.5% 8.6% 9.2% 10.8% 8.3% 5.9% 2.8%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 29.1% 22.3% 17.0% 11.3% 8.6% 5.4% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Shakespeare 4.3% 3.7% 4.2% 6.1% 6.6% 6.3% 7.2% 7.6% 9.3% 9.4% 12.9% 12.2% 10.1%
Emma AuBuchon 3.9% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 6.9% 10.7% 11.2% 12.6% 12.8% 8.9%
Caroline Bayless 8.6% 9.3% 9.1% 10.8% 10.7% 9.1% 9.8% 8.8% 7.6% 6.6% 4.9% 3.2% 1.6%
Caroline Benson 6.9% 7.7% 7.7% 8.2% 8.8% 8.3% 11.3% 8.5% 8.7% 10.2% 6.6% 4.7% 2.4%
Madison Bashaw 5.4% 5.9% 6.6% 8.1% 8.2% 9.3% 8.6% 9.7% 10.5% 8.5% 7.7% 8.0% 3.5%
Emma Cowles 13.1% 13.6% 14.5% 12.8% 11.6% 9.9% 6.5% 7.5% 4.7% 2.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3%
Hailey Pemberton 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 3.5% 2.9% 4.7% 5.1% 6.1% 9.0% 14.6% 45.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.