Race 1B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Blaire McCarthy 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 5.5% 6.9% 7.6% 6.0% 8.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.3% 10.3% 10.1%
Mia Hanes 6.1% 6.6% 7.0% 7.5% 7.6% 8.3% 8.6% 8.1% 8.0% 9.5% 9.4% 7.6% 5.7%
Sophia Devling 10.8% 10.0% 10.4% 9.2% 9.7% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 6.8% 6.0% 5.1% 3.0% 1.7%
Islay Van Dusen 4.6% 5.5% 5.3% 6.2% 5.8% 7.2% 6.2% 6.9% 8.6% 9.6% 10.6% 12.2% 11.4%
Megan Grimes 9.8% 9.4% 8.8% 10.4% 9.1% 8.8% 9.4% 8.8% 6.9% 7.1% 5.6% 4.0% 1.8%
Brooke Schmelz 10.8% 9.4% 10.5% 10.5% 8.9% 8.8% 9.7% 9.6% 8.2% 5.1% 3.9% 3.6% 1.0%
Heidi Hicks 2.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 5.9% 6.2% 7.1% 8.6% 10.5% 14.9% 25.2%
Ellie Harned 13.7% 14.3% 12.7% 11.1% 10.0% 8.6% 8.7% 6.5% 6.5% 3.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7%
Caroline Sibilly 14.8% 12.8% 12.1% 11.2% 11.0% 8.5% 7.5% 6.7% 5.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Aili Moffet 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% 6.3% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8% 9.6% 12.3% 13.2% 15.8%
Annika Fedde 5.1% 4.7% 6.3% 5.6% 6.9% 6.8% 7.4% 8.4% 8.8% 9.8% 10.0% 11.2% 9.1%
Leah Rickard 4.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 5.2% 5.5% 6.0% 7.4% 8.3% 10.2% 10.5% 13.8% 15.4%
Marbella Marlo 8.7% 10.2% 10.1% 10.3% 9.5% 9.6% 9.0% 7.7% 7.8% 6.6% 5.5% 3.2% 1.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.