Race 2B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sophia Devling 9.8% 11.6% 11.3% 10.9% 9.7% 8.7% 7.4% 8.3% 7.6% 5.8% 4.1% 3.3% 1.6%
Leah Rickard 3.5% 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 5.7% 6.3% 6.7% 9.4% 10.0% 11.1% 14.0% 15.2%
Marbella Marlo 11.2% 9.4% 9.7% 9.0% 10.3% 8.8% 9.6% 7.6% 7.9% 6.5% 4.3% 3.8% 1.8%
Megan Grimes 10.0% 8.8% 9.8% 9.2% 9.1% 8.8% 9.2% 9.1% 7.8% 6.8% 5.5% 4.0% 2.1%
Brooke Schmelz 10.5% 10.2% 11.7% 9.9% 10.6% 9.3% 9.4% 8.0% 6.8% 5.8% 4.0% 2.7% 1.1%
Islay Van Dusen 5.3% 5.4% 4.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 6.5% 7.8% 8.1% 10.7% 11.2% 12.7% 9.8%
Aili Moffet 3.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.5% 5.2% 8.2% 8.8% 9.8% 11.8% 12.8% 17.5%
Annika Fedde 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 6.7% 7.0% 7.4% 8.6% 8.2% 10.1% 10.3% 12.0% 10.3%
Heidi Hicks 2.5% 3.2% 3.6% 2.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.9% 6.3% 7.1% 8.8% 11.8% 13.3% 25.7%
Blaire McCarthy 5.1% 5.7% 4.7% 6.5% 6.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.8% 8.9% 9.4% 11.4% 10.6% 8.5%
Ellie Harned 13.9% 13.2% 12.5% 12.2% 10.5% 8.6% 8.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.4%
Mia Hanes 6.2% 7.1% 6.6% 8.2% 6.8% 9.2% 8.7% 8.7% 8.0% 8.5% 8.3% 8.3% 5.4%
Caroline Sibilly 13.8% 12.3% 11.9% 11.8% 10.7% 9.8% 8.2% 6.7% 5.3% 3.8% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.