Race 4B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Caroline Sibilly 13.4% 12.4% 11.2% 11.8% 10.2% 10.0% 8.3% 7.3% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Megan Grimes 10.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.3% 9.7% 10.4% 8.0% 7.8% 8.2% 6.6% 5.5% 3.9% 1.9%
Ellie Harned 13.6% 11.9% 13.2% 12.4% 11.8% 8.8% 7.4% 6.7% 5.7% 3.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Marbella Marlo 10.7% 10.8% 10.2% 8.4% 9.3% 8.8% 9.3% 9.2% 6.2% 6.7% 5.3% 3.5% 1.7%
Annika Fedde 3.7% 5.9% 5.4% 6.2% 5.9% 7.0% 7.5% 8.9% 8.2% 9.5% 11.7% 9.0% 11.2%
Mia Hanes 6.1% 6.2% 7.4% 7.2% 7.2% 8.1% 8.8% 8.7% 8.2% 9.6% 8.3% 8.3% 5.7%
Brooke Schmelz 11.6% 10.7% 11.3% 9.3% 9.2% 9.7% 8.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.0% 4.4% 3.0% 1.1%
Sophia Devling 9.7% 10.7% 9.8% 10.6% 10.5% 8.4% 9.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.5% 4.2% 2.8% 1.1%
Leah Rickard 3.5% 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.3% 7.4% 6.9% 8.8% 9.2% 11.9% 13.0% 14.6%
Heidi Hicks 2.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.9% 5.8% 8.2% 8.3% 10.9% 15.0% 24.1%
Aili Moffet 4.0% 3.6% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.8% 5.2% 7.0% 9.0% 10.0% 10.9% 14.2% 16.3%
Islay Van Dusen 4.2% 5.2% 4.7% 6.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.7% 7.2% 8.1% 10.3% 10.1% 12.7% 12.0%
Blaire McCarthy 6.3% 4.9% 6.3% 5.8% 5.2% 6.6% 7.4% 7.6% 8.5% 9.7% 10.9% 11.2% 9.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.