Race 5B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grimes 10.1% 9.9% 9.2% 10.1% 8.8% 10.2% 8.7% 8.0% 7.6% 6.7% 5.2% 3.2% 2.3%
Brooke Schmelz 10.7% 10.3% 10.3% 8.9% 10.4% 9.6% 9.0% 7.3% 7.6% 6.3% 5.1% 3.1% 1.2%
Ellie Harned 13.2% 13.2% 12.4% 11.6% 10.2% 8.6% 9.5% 7.5% 5.2% 4.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2%
Islay Van Dusen 5.5% 5.3% 4.7% 6.1% 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.6% 9.8% 12.8% 11.8%
Sophia Devling 9.6% 10.5% 11.2% 9.8% 9.1% 8.6% 8.9% 7.1% 9.1% 6.3% 5.6% 3.0% 1.2%
Caroline Sibilly 14.1% 12.4% 12.6% 11.1% 10.2% 8.8% 8.3% 7.8% 4.5% 4.8% 3.1% 1.6% 0.5%
Blaire McCarthy 5.5% 6.0% 5.1% 6.2% 5.8% 6.9% 7.0% 8.2% 8.8% 10.7% 11.2% 10.3% 8.2%
Marbella Marlo 10.1% 10.4% 9.6% 10.7% 8.5% 10.2% 9.6% 7.5% 8.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.1% 1.2%
Annika Fedde 5.0% 4.7% 5.0% 6.2% 6.7% 7.4% 6.6% 8.8% 8.3% 10.1% 9.9% 10.9% 10.5%
Mia Hanes 6.7% 6.5% 7.2% 7.0% 8.6% 7.6% 8.1% 9.7% 8.2% 9.3% 9.1% 7.3% 4.8%
Aili Moffet 3.0% 3.4% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 9.2% 8.2% 11.7% 13.8% 16.5%
Heidi Hicks 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 4.8% 3.9% 5.1% 6.7% 6.9% 8.3% 11.7% 14.5% 25.9%
Leah Rickard 3.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.4% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9% 6.4% 7.9% 10.2% 10.3% 14.9% 15.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.