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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.62+7.06vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.78+6.11vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.10+3.26vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+2.78vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.44+4.13vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.06+0.16vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.26+1.38vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.59+2.20vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-1.03vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.71-2.45vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.21-1.73vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.87-2.69vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.57-4.46vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00-3.46vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.65-1.62vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-3.15vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.95-6.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.06Fordham University1.626.8%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy1.787.2%1st Place
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6.26Jacksonville University2.1010.7%1st Place
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6.78University of Miami2.328.8%1st Place
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9.13George Washington University1.443.8%1st Place
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6.16Tulane University2.0611.2%1st Place
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8.38Old Dominion University1.266.6%1st Place
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10.2Northeastern University1.593.9%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland1.687.0%1st Place
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7.55Webb Institute1.717.4%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University1.214.8%1st Place
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9.31University of Vermont0.875.7%1st Place
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8.54North Carolina State University1.576.2%1st Place
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10.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.003.5%1st Place
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13.38Christopher Newport University0.651.6%1st Place
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12.85Hampton University0.721.8%1st Place
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10.52Boston University0.953.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Tanner Kelly | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Zander King | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Blake Goodwin | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Calvin Schmid | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Gilda Dondona | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 34.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 25.9% |
| Dylan Balunas | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.