Race 6B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grimes 9.4% 10.3% 10.1% 7.8% 9.4% 8.7% 9.4% 9.6% 7.3% 6.9% 5.4% 3.9% 1.8%
Marbella Marlo 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.4% 8.5% 7.2% 7.5% 7.0% 5.5% 3.5% 1.4%
Sophia Devling 9.8% 10.7% 9.8% 10.8% 9.0% 10.2% 8.8% 8.7% 7.5% 5.7% 5.0% 2.6% 1.2%
Blaire McCarthy 4.3% 5.2% 5.2% 7.0% 6.0% 6.9% 7.4% 8.8% 9.4% 9.0% 11.2% 10.5% 9.0%
Islay Van Dusen 4.5% 4.5% 5.3% 5.7% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 8.1% 8.1% 10.4% 10.1% 11.8% 12.6%
Ellie Harned 14.8% 11.9% 12.7% 10.5% 11.5% 9.6% 8.0% 6.2% 5.6% 4.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6%
Aili Moffet 4.0% 4.0% 4.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 8.6% 11.3% 12.8% 17.0%
Caroline Sibilly 13.4% 13.0% 12.3% 10.9% 11.1% 10.2% 8.9% 6.3% 5.0% 4.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5%
Annika Fedde 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.8% 7.6% 8.5% 9.7% 8.9% 10.1% 10.8% 10.1%
Mia Hanes 6.5% 6.3% 7.4% 8.3% 6.1% 7.4% 8.3% 8.5% 9.9% 9.9% 8.8% 7.4% 5.2%
Heidi Hicks 2.1% 3.4% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.9% 6.7% 9.6% 10.2% 16.9% 24.5%
Brooke Schmelz 12.1% 11.9% 9.8% 8.8% 10.3% 8.7% 9.1% 7.4% 6.9% 6.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.0%
Leah Rickard 4.2% 3.8% 4.4% 4.8% 5.4% 5.2% 5.6% 7.6% 8.9% 9.7% 11.5% 14.0% 15.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.