Race 11B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marbella Marlo 10.2% 9.5% 11.7% 8.5% 9.2% 9.8% 7.8% 7.8% 8.3% 6.3% 5.5% 4.3% 1.1%
Heidi Hicks 3.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.8% 4.2% 4.2% 5.5% 5.6% 7.3% 8.2% 11.6% 14.0% 25.5%
Mia Hanes 5.9% 6.8% 7.1% 7.5% 8.1% 7.1% 8.9% 8.1% 9.6% 9.2% 9.2% 7.7% 4.9%
Blaire McCarthy 5.5% 5.0% 4.8% 6.1% 6.1% 7.5% 7.5% 9.7% 9.0% 10.0% 9.2% 10.2% 9.3%
Caroline Sibilly 14.2% 12.9% 11.5% 11.6% 10.9% 9.8% 8.7% 7.0% 5.2% 3.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5%
Sophia Devling 10.2% 10.3% 10.4% 10.8% 9.4% 8.0% 8.9% 7.4% 7.3% 7.7% 4.3% 3.7% 1.6%
Megan Grimes 9.8% 10.0% 9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.8% 8.2% 8.2% 7.1% 6.9% 4.9% 4.4% 1.8%
Brooke Schmelz 10.5% 10.9% 10.4% 10.9% 9.6% 10.0% 9.3% 8.3% 6.6% 5.2% 4.4% 2.6% 1.1%
Leah Rickard 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 5.1% 5.4% 6.3% 6.7% 7.5% 7.6% 8.8% 10.7% 13.7% 15.5%
Aili Moffet 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 7.3% 8.6% 10.0% 12.0% 13.6% 16.6%
Annika Fedde 4.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.2% 5.6% 7.1% 7.6% 7.5% 9.2% 9.2% 11.1% 10.9% 10.2%
Ellie Harned 13.8% 13.3% 11.8% 10.8% 10.5% 9.0% 8.2% 7.3% 5.3% 5.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.5%
Islay Van Dusen 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 5.5% 6.0% 5.5% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0% 9.6% 12.2% 11.8% 11.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.