Race 12B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grimes 9.4% 9.8% 10.4% 10.4% 9.5% 8.3% 9.4% 8.2% 8.2% 6.3% 5.1% 3.4% 1.5%
Brooke Schmelz 11.2% 11.5% 10.0% 10.5% 9.3% 8.3% 9.2% 7.5% 7.9% 6.0% 4.8% 2.8% 0.9%
Ellie Harned 15.2% 12.8% 11.8% 10.0% 10.1% 9.2% 8.2% 7.8% 5.5% 4.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Heidi Hicks 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.5% 4.2% 4.3% 5.2% 5.7% 7.0% 9.0% 10.4% 15.4% 26.2%
Leah Rickard 3.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.5% 5.3% 5.7% 7.4% 7.4% 8.2% 9.4% 12.3% 13.6% 14.6%
Blaire McCarthy 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.2% 7.3% 8.4% 8.2% 8.8% 10.9% 10.5% 9.4%
Islay Van Dusen 5.2% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0% 6.9% 6.2% 6.8% 7.1% 8.1% 11.8% 9.7% 11.2% 10.4%
Marbella Marlo 10.0% 10.2% 9.4% 8.8% 10.0% 10.0% 7.9% 8.4% 7.5% 6.3% 5.9% 3.5% 1.9%
Annika Fedde 3.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.9% 6.3% 7.3% 7.7% 8.0% 8.4% 9.6% 11.2% 11.8% 11.2%
Aili Moffet 3.5% 4.4% 4.8% 4.6% 6.0% 5.5% 6.0% 7.3% 8.8% 9.0% 10.8% 13.5% 15.8%
Mia Hanes 8.1% 5.9% 6.3% 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 7.6% 8.6% 8.9% 9.0% 8.2% 8.2% 5.7%
Caroline Sibilly 12.4% 13.9% 12.0% 11.2% 10.2% 10.5% 7.5% 7.1% 5.5% 4.3% 3.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Sophia Devling 9.4% 8.8% 11.0% 11.2% 8.0% 10.3% 9.8% 8.6% 7.9% 5.8% 4.8% 3.1% 1.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.