Race 1C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ximena Escobar 8.1% 8.5% 8.5% 9.1% 9.4% 9.0% 8.8% 9.0% 7.9% 8.2% 6.0% 4.8% 2.7%
Brielle Willoughby 13.8% 14.1% 12.3% 13.6% 11.6% 8.9% 6.7% 7.1% 4.4% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Maisie MacGillivray 3.6% 3.0% 4.0% 3.8% 5.4% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 7.1% 9.4% 11.9% 13.4% 19.6%
Cordelia Burn 15.9% 13.9% 14.8% 11.9% 10.1% 10.2% 7.3% 6.0% 4.7% 2.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sophie Fisher 15.5% 16.8% 13.3% 12.3% 10.9% 9.7% 6.8% 6.2% 3.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4%
Kay Brunsvold 8.4% 9.0% 8.8% 10.9% 8.9% 9.8% 10.4% 8.6% 7.6% 7.0% 5.7% 3.5% 1.4%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.9% 4.0% 4.5% 3.9% 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% 6.7% 7.3% 9.3% 11.2% 14.1% 20.9%
Lucy Spearman 7.6% 7.0% 7.8% 7.6% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 10.1% 8.2% 7.8% 5.7% 3.4%
Sophia Peck 5.0% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 7.2% 10.1% 10.1% 10.8% 9.8% 8.2%
Lily Flack 3.7% 3.6% 5.0% 4.4% 4.6% 5.2% 7.1% 8.1% 8.9% 10.1% 11.5% 13.5% 14.3%
Avery Canavan 4.7% 6.2% 5.0% 5.7% 7.0% 6.7% 9.2% 8.2% 9.2% 9.0% 10.5% 10.3% 8.6%
Emily Scherer 6.2% 4.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 6.3% 8.8% 9.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.3% 10.2% 8.5%
Lourdes Gallo 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.6% 7.5% 6.9% 8.4% 9.4% 10.2% 10.7% 12.2% 11.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.