Race 3C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kay Brunsvold 10.2% 9.2% 9.2% 10.1% 10.7% 8.8% 8.6% 9.3% 7.8% 6.7% 4.9% 2.9% 1.8%
Sophie Fisher 16.7% 16.0% 14.2% 12.1% 11.5% 8.6% 6.6% 5.9% 4.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1%
Cordelia Burn 14.7% 14.6% 12.7% 13.1% 12.2% 8.8% 8.7% 5.5% 4.3% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1%
Emily Scherer 4.5% 6.2% 5.7% 6.7% 7.0% 7.6% 7.5% 8.8% 8.8% 10.2% 10.1% 9.9% 7.2%
Maisie MacGillivray 3.5% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 4.8% 5.3% 5.7% 7.5% 7.9% 9.3% 11.6% 13.9% 20.2%
Ximena Escobar 8.3% 7.6% 9.2% 8.2% 9.3% 10.5% 7.9% 8.6% 8.3% 8.0% 5.8% 5.4% 2.8%
Avery Canavan 4.6% 5.1% 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% 7.1% 8.3% 9.2% 9.6% 8.6% 10.2% 10.5% 8.8%
Lucy Spearman 7.1% 7.0% 7.4% 8.6% 7.3% 9.2% 9.2% 9.1% 10.2% 8.9% 8.0% 4.4% 3.4%
Lily Flack 3.4% 4.0% 4.2% 5.2% 4.5% 5.4% 7.2% 8.2% 7.9% 10.0% 11.4% 13.9% 14.9%
Brielle Willoughby 14.8% 13.3% 12.6% 11.4% 9.9% 9.6% 8.5% 6.2% 5.7% 3.7% 3.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Lourdes Gallo 3.5% 5.6% 6.0% 5.0% 5.7% 7.2% 7.5% 6.8% 8.3% 9.1% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%
Sophia Peck 5.9% 5.5% 4.9% 6.6% 6.2% 6.9% 8.3% 8.5% 9.7% 10.0% 9.2% 9.7% 8.6%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.9% 3.1% 4.5% 3.1% 4.7% 5.1% 5.9% 6.4% 7.3% 10.5% 11.2% 15.3% 20.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.