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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+5.51vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.95+8.35vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+7.61vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.10+2.32vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.59+5.25vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+2.06vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+6.49vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32-1.07vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.06-2.59vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.26-1.50vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.78-2.68vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.62-3.87vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.44-4.08vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-4.67vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-2.13vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.21-6.72vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.57-8.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Webb Institute1.739.4%1st Place
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10.35Boston University0.954.0%1st Place
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10.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.003.5%1st Place
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6.32Jacksonville University2.1011.1%1st Place
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10.25Northeastern University1.593.9%1st Place
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8.06St. Mary's College of Maryland1.686.2%1st Place
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13.49Christopher Newport University0.651.5%1st Place
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6.93University of Miami2.327.8%1st Place
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6.41Tulane University2.069.4%1st Place
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8.5Old Dominion University1.265.9%1st Place
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8.32U. S. Naval Academy1.785.9%1st Place
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8.13Fordham University1.626.3%1st Place
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8.92George Washington University1.445.3%1st Place
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9.33University of Vermont0.875.9%1st Place
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12.87Hampton University0.722.0%1st Place
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9.28Cornell University1.215.8%1st Place
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8.73North Carolina State University1.576.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Dylan Balunas | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 33.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Zander King | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Tanner Kelly | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 15.9% | 25.8% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.