Race 4C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cordelia Burn 16.6% 14.6% 14.4% 11.8% 11.1% 8.8% 7.5% 5.5% 4.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Brielle Willoughby 14.1% 13.5% 13.7% 11.2% 9.6% 10.3% 8.2% 7.1% 5.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Ximena Escobar 7.4% 8.7% 8.2% 9.1% 8.6% 8.8% 8.6% 8.9% 8.8% 8.1% 7.1% 4.5% 3.1%
Emily Scherer 5.0% 5.5% 5.9% 7.0% 7.8% 7.3% 7.6% 9.8% 8.8% 10.5% 8.6% 8.2% 8.0%
Sophie Fisher 17.9% 16.1% 14.0% 12.4% 11.2% 8.3% 7.2% 5.1% 3.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Maisie MacGillivray 2.8% 3.3% 3.6% 4.2% 4.8% 6.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.8% 9.2% 10.7% 13.5% 20.4%
Lucy Spearman 7.2% 6.8% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0% 9.3% 9.3% 8.9% 9.1% 9.8% 7.4% 7.0% 2.9%
Lily Flack 3.8% 4.3% 3.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 6.8% 7.6% 9.2% 9.2% 11.2% 13.1% 16.0%
Kay Brunsvold 10.0% 9.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.7% 9.8% 10.5% 8.2% 7.4% 5.2% 5.5% 3.5% 1.1%
Sophia Peck 3.8% 5.5% 6.7% 6.6% 6.3% 7.0% 7.5% 8.4% 10.7% 9.4% 10.4% 9.6% 8.0%
Avery Canavan 4.9% 5.2% 5.7% 6.4% 7.4% 6.3% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 10.7% 9.7% 10.8% 8.6%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 4.2% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2% 6.5% 7.5% 9.9% 12.2% 15.3% 20.2%
Lourdes Gallo 4.0% 4.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 7.0% 7.1% 8.6% 8.9% 10.0% 11.1% 12.4% 10.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.