Race 5C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emily Scherer 5.1% 5.9% 5.9% 7.0% 6.7% 7.0% 7.3% 9.5% 9.3% 10.1% 9.7% 8.4% 8.2%
Cordelia Burn 16.6% 14.4% 14.3% 12.8% 10.8% 7.8% 8.8% 5.1% 3.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Ximena Escobar 7.0% 8.6% 8.5% 7.9% 9.2% 9.6% 8.3% 9.0% 10.0% 7.9% 6.1% 5.3% 2.7%
Lucy Spearman 7.3% 7.0% 8.1% 7.9% 8.3% 8.6% 9.2% 9.4% 9.8% 7.2% 7.1% 6.3% 3.8%
Kay Brunsvold 9.7% 8.9% 10.2% 10.6% 10.1% 8.6% 9.7% 8.9% 8.7% 5.5% 4.9% 2.9% 1.1%
Brielle Willoughby 14.4% 13.6% 12.0% 12.6% 10.5% 9.7% 8.0% 7.5% 4.6% 4.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Sophie Fisher 16.4% 16.8% 14.6% 11.9% 10.1% 9.1% 7.3% 4.9% 4.3% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2%
Avery Canavan 4.0% 4.8% 5.0% 6.6% 6.2% 8.1% 6.7% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 12.2% 10.5% 7.9%
Maisie MacGillivray 3.1% 3.0% 3.9% 3.6% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 6.7% 7.8% 10.4% 10.9% 14.1% 20.4%
Lourdes Gallo 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 7.2% 7.1% 7.8% 8.3% 9.3% 11.6% 12.1% 13.1%
Lily Flack 3.9% 3.2% 4.0% 4.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.2% 6.9% 7.5% 11.1% 10.4% 13.6% 15.8%
Sophia Peck 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 6.1% 7.3% 6.7% 8.6% 8.6% 9.2% 9.6% 10.4% 9.1% 8.6%
Izzy Wu-Karr 3.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% 5.8% 6.3% 7.0% 7.4% 9.1% 11.7% 15.7% 17.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.