Race 8C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sophie Fisher 17.6% 15.0% 13.5% 12.4% 12.5% 8.2% 6.3% 5.6% 3.9% 2.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Ximena Escobar 7.6% 7.6% 9.3% 8.3% 8.6% 9.3% 8.9% 8.6% 8.8% 7.7% 7.3% 5.2% 2.5%
Cordelia Burn 15.8% 14.8% 13.4% 12.5% 10.4% 10.1% 6.9% 5.0% 4.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Brielle Willoughby 15.4% 14.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.8% 9.8% 8.5% 6.9% 5.0% 3.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5%
Sophia Peck 5.0% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.9% 8.5% 6.7% 8.9% 9.8% 10.2% 10.5% 10.1% 8.2%
Emily Scherer 4.7% 4.9% 5.3% 6.7% 6.9% 7.3% 9.2% 8.6% 9.2% 9.0% 10.5% 9.5% 8.3%
Lily Flack 3.9% 4.0% 4.7% 4.5% 5.4% 4.6% 7.0% 8.2% 7.9% 10.5% 11.2% 14.0% 14.0%
Lucy Spearman 6.8% 7.9% 7.4% 9.3% 7.8% 7.9% 9.5% 8.2% 9.5% 8.9% 7.0% 6.2% 3.5%
Avery Canavan 4.2% 5.2% 6.1% 6.2% 7.1% 6.2% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 9.6% 10.4% 9.8% 9.5%
Lourdes Gallo 3.9% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 6.3% 6.9% 6.0% 8.1% 9.0% 9.4% 10.5% 12.8% 12.2%
Kay Brunsvold 9.2% 9.6% 10.1% 9.1% 10.8% 10.2% 9.0% 8.3% 8.5% 6.1% 5.1% 2.6% 1.4%
Maisie MacGillivray 3.4% 3.2% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 5.8% 6.0% 7.8% 8.6% 8.5% 11.8% 13.4% 19.3%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.5% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.7% 5.1% 7.0% 7.4% 7.0% 10.2% 10.1% 14.1% 20.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.