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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+6.81vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.32+5.05vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.06+3.33vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+3.98vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.10+1.35vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.26+2.60vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.78+1.30vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.73-1.58vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.65+4.45vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.44-0.76vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00-0.25vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.59-1.89vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.72+0.01vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.95-3.63vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.57-6.49vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.21-6.60vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.87-7.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.81St. Mary's College of Maryland1.687.9%1st Place
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7.05University of Miami2.328.6%1st Place
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6.33Tulane University2.069.7%1st Place
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7.98Fordham University1.627.2%1st Place
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6.35Jacksonville University2.1011.2%1st Place
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8.6Old Dominion University1.265.8%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Naval Academy1.786.0%1st Place
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6.42Webb Institute1.7310.6%1st Place
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13.45Christopher Newport University0.651.6%1st Place
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9.24George Washington University1.444.7%1st Place
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10.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.002.8%1st Place
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10.11Northeastern University1.594.2%1st Place
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13.01Hampton University0.721.5%1st Place
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10.37Boston University0.954.1%1st Place
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8.51North Carolina State University1.575.9%1st Place
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9.4Cornell University1.213.8%1st Place
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9.31University of Vermont0.874.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Zander King | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Owen Bannasch | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Blake Goodwin | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Tanner Kelly | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 34.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 27.0% |
| Dylan Balunas | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 6.2% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.