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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.48+2.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.57vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.07+2.45vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.08+2.94vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.15+1.32vs Predicted
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6Bates College-0.33+3.93vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.18-0.76vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.87-0.67vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.26-2.29vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.07-3.46vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.27-2.21vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College0.05-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.19Harvard University2.4825.2%1st Place
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3.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3220.0%1st Place
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5.45Bowdoin College2.078.5%1st Place
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6.94Bowdoin College1.086.4%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University1.156.5%1st Place
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9.93Bates College-0.331.3%1st Place
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6.24Tufts University1.186.8%1st Place
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7.33University of Vermont0.875.1%1st Place
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6.71Northeastern University1.265.9%1st Place
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6.54Northeastern University1.076.2%1st Place
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8.79Maine Maritime Academy0.272.8%1st Place
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6.98Bowdoin College0.055.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Callahan | 25.2% | 21.1% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Nicholas Reeser | 20.0% | 20.2% | 15.4% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Elizabeth Kaplan | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
Jonathan Chance | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 5.8% |
Ella Hubbard | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% |
Harry Stevenson | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 46.8% |
Adrien Bellanger | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 1.9% |
Christian Cushman | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% |
Sam Monaghan | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 4.0% |
Joshua Dillon | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
Nalu Ho | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 20.4% | 20.8% |
Benjamin Stevens | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.