Race 5A

oberg-bu-by-nu

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
John Renehan 8.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.4% 9.1% 8.5% 8.2% 9.2% 7.1% 6.7% 5.4% 3.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Ames Lyman 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 3.0% 2.1% 3.1% 4.2% 3.7% 4.8% 5.8% 8.6% 9.1% 14.0% 15.4% 14.7% 6.4%
Connor Needham 13.5% 10.9% 11.3% 9.9% 9.7% 10.0% 9.7% 9.0% 5.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Ryan Mullins 13.1% 12.0% 11.5% 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 9.2% 5.9% 6.9% 3.6% 3.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
David Larson 9.8% 9.7% 10.4% 10.0% 9.7% 9.8% 7.0% 8.4% 8.1% 6.9% 4.5% 2.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Emily Billing 8.8% 11.0% 10.8% 10.7% 8.9% 8.5% 8.8% 7.6% 6.9% 7.1% 4.7% 3.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Brendan Cook 9.8% 8.2% 8.6% 9.2% 8.1% 7.5% 8.1% 8.9% 9.6% 7.3% 7.0% 4.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
John Silvestri 3.9% 5.7% 4.8% 4.7% 7.4% 6.0% 7.5% 7.4% 7.8% 8.5% 10.0% 10.8% 6.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.5%
Andrew McHenry 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 7.1% 6.8% 9.5% 13.5% 16.9% 16.4% 8.1%
Willem Sandberg 12.5% 11.5% 11.9% 10.9% 11.0% 9.3% 9.8% 7.3% 5.9% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Adam Ceely 6.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.6% 5.4% 6.6% 7.0% 9.1% 8.1% 9.8% 9.8% 7.6% 7.5% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Timothy Harding 4.8% 5.5% 4.8% 6.4% 6.5% 7.7% 7.2% 6.0% 7.9% 9.5% 9.8% 8.7% 8.5% 4.0% 2.5% 0.2%
Thomas Presti 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.6% 4.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.8% 6.4% 7.9% 8.9% 12.6% 13.2% 13.9% 9.2% 3.5%
Victoria McGruer 3.2% 2.7% 3.3% 2.7% 4.5% 6.1% 5.0% 6.8% 7.7% 7.6% 9.5% 12.7% 11.5% 10.3% 4.5% 1.9%
Olin Nelson 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 2.4% 3.6% 5.6% 8.0% 12.5% 26.7% 32.3%
Nicholaus Pehr 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 4.2% 6.4% 10.7% 20.8% 46.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.