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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.87vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.51vs Predicted
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3University of Texas1.65+2.04vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+2.83vs Predicted
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5University of North Texas1.77-0.57vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.97+1.06vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+0.58vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.33vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.81-1.55vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.53-1.11vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.68-2.45vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.17-2.28vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.07-3.59vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-0.83-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.3%1st Place
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6.51University of California at Los Angeles1.487.8%1st Place
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5.04University of Texas1.6512.6%1st Place
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6.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.137.1%1st Place
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4.43University of North Texas1.7717.0%1st Place
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7.06California Poly Maritime Academy0.976.9%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.2%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Berkeley0.988.2%1st Place
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7.45University of Washington0.815.8%1st Place
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8.89San Diego State University0.532.8%1st Place
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8.55University of California at San Diego0.684.2%1st Place
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9.72Northwestern University0.172.4%1st Place
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9.41University of California at Davis0.073.9%1st Place
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11.99California State University Channel Islands-0.831.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 14.3% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Ethan Froelich | 12.6% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Dutch Byerly | 17.0% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| George Soliman | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Will Cornell | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 7.8% |
| Noah Barton | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 6.3% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 13.3% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 10.9% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 51.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.