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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.85vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.67vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+3.86vs Predicted
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4University of North Texas1.77+0.55vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+2.57vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.97+1.00vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.81+0.39vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.17vs Predicted
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9University of Texas1.65-3.94vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.68-1.49vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University0.53-2.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.07-2.62vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-0.83-1.08vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.17-4.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.2%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Los Angeles1.487.1%1st Place
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6.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.137.5%1st Place
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4.55University of North Texas1.7715.3%1st Place
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7.57University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.5%1st Place
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7.0California Poly Maritime Academy0.975.8%1st Place
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7.39University of Washington0.816.6%1st Place
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6.83University of California at Berkeley0.987.1%1st Place
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5.06University of Texas1.6512.3%1st Place
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8.51University of California at San Diego0.683.9%1st Place
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8.64San Diego State University0.535.2%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Davis0.074.3%1st Place
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11.92California State University Channel Islands-0.831.5%1st Place
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9.79Northwestern University0.172.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 15.2% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Dutch Byerly | 15.3% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Ben Louttit | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 2.1% |
| Will Cornell | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Ethan Froelich | 12.3% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 6.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 7.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 10.7% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 51.2% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 18.4% | 13.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.