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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.53vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-0.19+5.14vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+1.62vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+0.87vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-0.18vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+0.58vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+0.76vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.88+1.46vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.43-3.19vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.58-1.63vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-2.40+1.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-2.93vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-2.64vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.13-3.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53California Poly Maritime Academy1.3122.1%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Davis-0.195.3%1st Place
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4.62California Poly Maritime Academy0.8614.0%1st Place
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4.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7212.6%1st Place
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4.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8313.6%1st Place
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6.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.276.8%1st Place
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7.76University of California at Los Angeles-0.234.9%1st Place
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9.46University of California at Berkeley-0.882.0%1st Place
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5.81University of California at Los Angeles0.437.6%1st Place
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8.37University of California at San Diego-0.583.9%1st Place
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12.59California State University Channel Islands-2.400.8%1st Place
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9.07University of California at Santa Cruz-0.592.8%1st Place
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10.36San Diego State University-1.271.9%1st Place
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10.02University of California at San Diego-1.131.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 22.1% | 18.3% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 14.0% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 12.6% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 13.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 6.9% |
| Zack Taylor | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 59.7% |
| Ryan Martin | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.2% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 18.2% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.