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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.64+7.18vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+9.81vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.16+3.23vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+4.57vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.81+2.30vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.78+1.47vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+1.00vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.92+2.76vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.11+4.72vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.00+0.81vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-3.77vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-4.93vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.31-3.88vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.49-5.72vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College4.05-8.66vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.13-5.91vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.69-1.96vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.61-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.18College of Charleston3.640.1%1st Place
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11.81Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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8.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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7.3Tufts University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.47Boston College3.780.1%1st Place
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8.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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10.76Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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13.72Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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10.81SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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7.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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9.12Roger Williams University3.310.1%1st Place
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8.28University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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6.34Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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10.09Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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15.04University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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14.94Northwestern University1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Mace | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| Martin Sterling | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Criezis | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Christian Manchester | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Eamon Glackin | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Zach Runci | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Michael Rivlin | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 17.1% |
| Ted Green | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Austen Anderson | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Will Stocke | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Burd | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| William Pilling | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 20.9% | 34.2% |
| George Powell | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 21.7% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.