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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.53vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+5.14vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.46+5.74vs Predicted
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4University of North Texas1.77+0.37vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.53+3.34vs Predicted
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6University of Texas1.65-1.34vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-0.46vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.48-1.84vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.08+0.86vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.68-1.92vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-0.83+0.60vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-5.31vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.07-3.94vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.17-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.7%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.7%1st Place
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8.74University of Washington0.463.8%1st Place
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4.37University of North Texas1.7716.2%1st Place
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8.34San Diego State University0.534.8%1st Place
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4.66University of Texas1.6514.2%1st Place
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6.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.137.0%1st Place
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6.16University of California at Los Angeles1.489.8%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Berkeley-0.082.4%1st Place
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8.08University of California at San Diego0.684.0%1st Place
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11.6California State University Channel Islands-0.831.2%1st Place
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6.69California Poly Maritime Academy0.977.3%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Davis0.074.0%1st Place
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9.24Northwestern University0.173.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 14.7% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 7.3% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.2% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 4.5% |
| Ethan Froelich | 14.2% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 15.3% |
| Noah Barton | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 43.3% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 8.8% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.