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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.41vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+5.23vs Predicted
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3University of Texas1.65+1.73vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.48+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.46+3.75vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.68+1.90vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-0.55vs Predicted
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8University of North Texas1.77-3.69vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.53-0.75vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-0.83+1.73vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-4.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.07-2.81vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.08-3.27vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.17-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.3%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.1%1st Place
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4.73University of Texas1.6515.4%1st Place
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6.19University of California at Los Angeles1.489.2%1st Place
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8.75University of Washington0.463.5%1st Place
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7.9University of California at San Diego0.685.0%1st Place
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6.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.138.7%1st Place
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4.31University of North Texas1.7716.9%1st Place
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8.25San Diego State University0.534.5%1st Place
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11.73California State University Channel Islands-0.831.1%1st Place
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6.67California Poly Maritime Academy0.977.1%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Davis0.072.6%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Berkeley-0.082.7%1st Place
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9.45Northwestern University0.172.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 15.3% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Froelich | 15.4% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 6.7% |
| Noah Barton | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Kai Ponting | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.9% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 45.1% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 8.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 13.8% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.