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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+9.56vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.32+5.01vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+3.51vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.57+4.72vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.78+3.22vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.10+0.26vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.06-0.60vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.21+1.35vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.26-0.34vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59+0.27vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62-3.05vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.44-2.78vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.95-2.77vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.65-0.48vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-7.15vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-6.70vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.004.0%1st Place
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7.01University of Miami2.329.6%1st Place
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6.51Webb Institute1.7310.2%1st Place
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8.72North Carolina State University1.576.0%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Naval Academy1.786.7%1st Place
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6.26Jacksonville University2.1010.7%1st Place
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6.4Tulane University2.0610.2%1st Place
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9.35Cornell University1.215.0%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University1.264.8%1st Place
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10.27Northeastern University1.593.8%1st Place
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7.95Fordham University1.626.9%1st Place
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9.22George Washington University1.444.5%1st Place
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10.23Boston University0.954.0%1st Place
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13.52Christopher Newport University0.651.6%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland1.686.8%1st Place
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9.3University of Vermont0.873.9%1st Place
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12.97Hampton University0.721.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Tanner Kelly | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Zander King | 10.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Dylan Balunas | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 33.9% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.