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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.68vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.30vs Predicted
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3University of North Texas1.77+1.47vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.53+4.59vs Predicted
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5University of Texas1.65-0.24vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.81+1.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.08+2.98vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-1.20vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-2.54vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.68-1.83vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-3.78vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.17-2.62vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-0.83-1.20vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.07-4.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.6%1st Place
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6.3University of California at Los Angeles1.487.7%1st Place
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4.47University of North Texas1.7715.6%1st Place
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8.59San Diego State University0.534.3%1st Place
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4.76University of Texas1.6514.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Washington0.815.9%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Berkeley-0.082.3%1st Place
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6.8California Poly Maritime Academy0.977.1%1st Place
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6.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.138.5%1st Place
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8.17University of California at San Diego0.685.2%1st Place
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7.22University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.6%1st Place
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9.38Northwestern University0.173.7%1st Place
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11.8California State University Channel Islands-0.831.1%1st Place
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9.22University of California at Davis0.073.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 14.6% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Dutch Byerly | 15.6% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 6.2% |
| Ethan Froelich | 14.0% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 18.4% | 15.3% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Kai Ponting | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Noah Barton | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.8% |
| George Soliman | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 11.8% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 46.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.