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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.51vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+3.06vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+1.65vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+5.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+2.83vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-1.16vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.58+1.56vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University-1.27+2.63vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.43-3.18vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.88-0.63vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-4.42vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.91vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.19-5.80vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.84-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.51California Poly Maritime Academy1.3122.4%1st Place
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5.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7210.8%1st Place
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4.65California Poly Maritime Academy0.8614.3%1st Place
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9.12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.591.5%1st Place
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7.83University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.2%1st Place
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4.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8312.8%1st Place
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8.56University of California at San Diego-0.583.4%1st Place
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10.63San Diego State University-1.271.3%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Los Angeles0.439.4%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Berkeley-0.882.9%1st Place
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6.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.277.1%1st Place
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10.09University of California at San Diego-1.132.0%1st Place
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7.2University of California at Davis-0.196.2%1st Place
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11.73California State University Channel Islands-1.840.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 22.4% | 19.6% | 16.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 14.3% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 7.4% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| Jack Kisling | 12.8% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 4.7% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 18.5% | 20.8% |
| Zack Taylor | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 8.9% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 17.2% | 15.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Liam Moran | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 39.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.