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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.97+5.78vs Predicted
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2University of Texas1.65+2.74vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+4.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.48+2.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.40vs Predicted
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6University of North Texas1.77-1.45vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.08+2.98vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-1.29vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.53-0.53vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.81-2.90vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.17-1.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.68-3.67vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.07-3.86vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-0.83-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78California Poly Maritime Academy0.976.9%1st Place
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4.74University of Texas1.6513.7%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.9%1st Place
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6.28University of California at Los Angeles1.488.6%1st Place
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4.6University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.4%1st Place
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4.55University of North Texas1.7714.9%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Berkeley-0.083.2%1st Place
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6.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.137.4%1st Place
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8.47San Diego State University0.534.2%1st Place
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7.1University of Washington0.816.3%1st Place
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9.26Northwestern University0.173.3%1st Place
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8.33University of California at San Diego0.684.3%1st Place
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9.14University of California at Davis0.073.5%1st Place
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11.81California State University Channel Islands-0.831.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Louttit | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Ethan Froelich | 13.7% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.4% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Dutch Byerly | 14.9% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 18.3% | 15.8% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 10.8% |
| Noah Barton | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.5% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 9.7% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 45.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.