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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.54vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+3.02vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.43+2.90vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.78vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+1.75vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-1.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+2.04vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-3.38vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.19-1.79vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-1.84+1.67vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-1.27-0.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.58-3.51vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.88-3.47vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.13-3.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.54California Poly Maritime Academy1.3121.5%1st Place
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5.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7212.3%1st Place
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5.9University of California at Los Angeles0.438.9%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Los Angeles-0.234.9%1st Place
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6.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.3%1st Place
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4.67California Poly Maritime Academy0.8612.1%1st Place
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9.04University of California at Santa Cruz-0.593.0%1st Place
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4.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8314.8%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Davis-0.195.9%1st Place
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11.67California State University Channel Islands-1.840.9%1st Place
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10.52San Diego State University-1.271.9%1st Place
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8.49University of California at San Diego-0.583.8%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Berkeley-0.882.4%1st Place
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10.27University of California at San Diego-1.132.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 21.5% | 19.2% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 12.3% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Zack Taylor | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 12.1% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| Jack Kisling | 14.8% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Liam Moran | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 40.9% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 8.7% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 18.1% | 15.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.