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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Texas1.65+3.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.82vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.48+3.62vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.81+3.48vs Predicted
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5University of North Texas1.77-0.37vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.97+1.01vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University0.17+2.78vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-1.08vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.68-0.45vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.07-0.56vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University0.53-2.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-4.60vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-0.83-1.14vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.98-7.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95University of Texas1.6514.1%1st Place
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4.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.2%1st Place
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6.62University of California at Los Angeles1.487.5%1st Place
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7.48University of Washington0.815.9%1st Place
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4.63University of North Texas1.7715.8%1st Place
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7.01California Poly Maritime Academy0.977.0%1st Place
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9.78Northwestern University0.172.6%1st Place
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6.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.137.1%1st Place
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8.55University of California at San Diego0.683.6%1st Place
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9.44University of California at Davis0.073.4%1st Place
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8.81San Diego State University0.533.8%1st Place
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7.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.7%1st Place
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11.86California State University Channel Islands-0.831.5%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Berkeley0.986.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Froelich | 14.1% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.2% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 2.0% |
| Dutch Byerly | 15.8% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 13.8% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Noah Barton | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 5.5% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 11.3% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.2% |
| George Soliman | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 49.5% |
| Will Cornell | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.