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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.67vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.31+4.38vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.58+5.66vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+5.45vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.20vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-0.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72-1.76vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.19-0.45vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-2.12vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.23vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-6.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.43-5.99vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.84-1.05vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.27-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67California Poly Maritime Academy1.3121.9%1st Place
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6.38University of California at Berkeley0.317.4%1st Place
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8.66University of California at San Diego-0.583.5%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Santa Cruz-0.592.9%1st Place
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8.2University of California at Los Angeles-0.234.1%1st Place
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5.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8311.4%1st Place
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5.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7211.7%1st Place
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7.55University of California at Davis-0.195.4%1st Place
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6.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.276.5%1st Place
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10.23University of California at San Diego-1.131.9%1st Place
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4.88California Poly Maritime Academy0.8613.0%1st Place
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6.01University of California at Los Angeles0.437.8%1st Place
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11.95California State University Channel Islands-1.841.1%1st Place
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10.79San Diego State University-1.271.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 21.9% | 17.7% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Martin | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 8.4% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Samuel Groom | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 13.0% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Zack Taylor | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Liam Moran | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 17.6% | 44.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 21.2% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.