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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.31+5.31vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-0.19+5.49vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+0.82vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+1.13vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+1.97vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.43+0.02vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-1.92vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+0.19vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-1.27+1.89vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-0.79vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.58-2.25vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-7.15vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.13-2.67vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.84-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31University of California at Berkeley0.317.2%1st Place
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7.49University of California at Davis-0.194.9%1st Place
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3.82California Poly Maritime Academy1.3120.1%1st Place
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5.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7213.0%1st Place
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6.97Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.277.1%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Los Angeles0.438.2%1st Place
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5.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8310.2%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Los Angeles-0.234.2%1st Place
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10.89San Diego State University-1.271.7%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Santa Cruz-0.593.3%1st Place
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8.75University of California at San Diego-0.583.6%1st Place
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4.85California Poly Maritime Academy0.8613.5%1st Place
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10.33University of California at San Diego-1.132.1%1st Place
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11.96California State University Channel Islands-1.840.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilton Lawton | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Kyle Farmer | 20.1% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 13.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Zack Taylor | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jack Kisling | 10.2% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 22.5% | 21.2% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 7.4% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 4.3% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 17.6% | 15.2% |
| Liam Moran | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 17.1% | 45.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.