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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.58vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.20vs Predicted
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3University of North Texas1.77+1.26vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.46+4.74vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+1.67vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.08+3.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.68+1.16vs Predicted
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8University of Texas1.65-3.35vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-2.45vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.53-1.77vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-0.83+0.57vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-4.90vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.07-3.76vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.17-4.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.4%1st Place
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6.2University of California at Los Angeles1.488.9%1st Place
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4.26University of North Texas1.7717.6%1st Place
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8.74University of Washington0.463.6%1st Place
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6.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.136.6%1st Place
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9.75University of California at Berkeley-0.082.8%1st Place
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8.16University of California at San Diego0.683.8%1st Place
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4.65University of Texas1.6515.4%1st Place
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6.55California Poly Maritime Academy0.977.4%1st Place
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8.23San Diego State University0.534.6%1st Place
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11.57California State University Channel Islands-0.831.6%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.5%1st Place
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9.24University of California at Davis0.073.6%1st Place
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9.31Northwestern University0.173.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 14.4% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Dutch Byerly | 17.6% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.5% |
| Kai Ponting | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 15.3% |
| Noah Barton | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| Ethan Froelich | 15.4% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 17.8% | 40.9% |
| George Soliman | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 10.2% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.