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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.67vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+2.98vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-0.19+4.48vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+5.27vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.43+0.97vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+1.99vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72-1.84vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University-1.27+2.56vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.31-2.65vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.37vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-6.00vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-2.40+0.75vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-6.19vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.58-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67California Poly Maritime Academy1.3120.8%1st Place
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4.98California Poly Maritime Academy0.8613.2%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Davis-0.195.0%1st Place
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9.27University of California at Santa Cruz-0.593.1%1st Place
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5.97University of California at Los Angeles0.438.6%1st Place
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7.99University of California at Los Angeles-0.234.5%1st Place
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5.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7211.2%1st Place
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10.56San Diego State University-1.271.7%1st Place
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6.35University of California at Berkeley0.316.2%1st Place
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10.37University of California at San Diego-1.131.6%1st Place
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5.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8314.0%1st Place
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12.75California State University Channel Islands-2.400.4%1st Place
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6.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.276.2%1st Place
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8.65University of California at San Diego-0.583.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 20.8% | 18.4% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 13.2% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 4.9% |
| Zack Taylor | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Milne | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 24.1% | 14.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 20.0% | 11.2% |
| Jack Kisling | 14.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 62.5% |
| Samuel Groom | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.