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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Texas1.65+3.76vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.59vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.46+5.96vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.78vs Predicted
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5University of North Texas1.77-0.55vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.48+0.47vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis0.07+2.42vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.68+0.32vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-1.50vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-3.24vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-4.00vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.53-3.36vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.17-3.45vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-0.83-2.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76University of Texas1.6515.7%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Berkeley0.987.7%1st Place
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8.96University of Washington0.463.2%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.4%1st Place
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4.45University of North Texas1.7716.1%1st Place
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6.47University of California at Los Angeles1.488.2%1st Place
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9.42University of California at Davis0.072.8%1st Place
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8.32University of California at San Diego0.684.9%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.4%1st Place
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6.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.137.4%1st Place
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7.0California Poly Maritime Academy0.976.3%1st Place
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8.64San Diego State University0.533.8%1st Place
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9.55Northwestern University0.172.9%1st Place
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11.78California State University Channel Islands-0.831.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Froelich | 15.7% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Will Cornell | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 9.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.4% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.1% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 8.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 10.8% |
| Noah Barton | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 4.6% |
| George Soliman | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Ben Louttit | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 7.2% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 13.4% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 46.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.