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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.32vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.54+6.36vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.58+5.53vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.94+5.47vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.07+4.66vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.40+5.77vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.70+3.73vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.93+0.04vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.12+0.32vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.05-4.63vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.70-3.53vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.42vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85-2.93vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.56-3.21vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.30-7.96vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.22-7.34vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13-8.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32U. S. Naval Academy2.1614.3%1st Place
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8.36Fordham University1.546.6%1st Place
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8.53Hampton University0.586.0%1st Place
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9.47Cornell University0.945.3%1st Place
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9.66Northeastern University1.073.0%1st Place
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11.77Boston University0.402.6%1st Place
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10.73George Washington University0.703.0%1st Place
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8.04University of Miami1.935.9%1st Place
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9.32North Carolina State University1.125.0%1st Place
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5.37Tulane University2.0513.2%1st Place
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7.47Jacksonville University1.708.2%1st Place
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13.42Christopher Newport University-0.841.1%1st Place
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10.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.854.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Vermont0.562.9%1st Place
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7.04Webb Institute1.308.2%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University1.225.3%1st Place
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8.97St. Mary's College of Maryland1.135.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 14.3% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Marcus Greco | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 16.4% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Usher | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| John Wood | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Laura Smith | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 34.6% |
| Jack Guinness | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Raam Fox | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.