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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.31vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.07+7.41vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.54+5.46vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.58+4.81vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.05+0.28vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.94+3.73vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85+3.30vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.70-0.95vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.40+2.91vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.56+0.74vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13-1.91vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.12-2.91vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.93-4.89vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.22-5.44vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.30-7.88vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.70-5.38vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.31U. S. Naval Academy2.1613.8%1st Place
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9.41Northeastern University1.074.4%1st Place
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8.46Fordham University1.545.9%1st Place
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8.81Hampton University0.584.8%1st Place
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5.28Tulane University2.0514.1%1st Place
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9.73Cornell University0.944.7%1st Place
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10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.854.1%1st Place
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7.05Jacksonville University1.708.9%1st Place
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11.91Boston University0.402.2%1st Place
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10.74University of Vermont0.563.2%1st Place
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9.09St. Mary's College of Maryland1.134.9%1st Place
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9.09North Carolina State University1.125.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Miami1.935.8%1st Place
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8.56Old Dominion University1.226.2%1st Place
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7.12Webb Institute1.308.0%1st Place
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10.62George Washington University0.703.1%1st Place
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13.41Christopher Newport University-0.841.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 13.8% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| John Wood | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Marcus Greco | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% |
| Jack Guinness | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.3% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 18.4% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% |
| Raam Fox | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Benjamin Usher | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Pierce Brindley | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.