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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+4.63vs Predicted
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2Tufts University4.08+3.44vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+4.99vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.38+3.84vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84+4.58vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01-0.20vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.72-0.31vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.47-0.43vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.51-1.62vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.89-3.73vs Predicted
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11Fordham University3.11-2.22vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-5.56vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.60-5.59vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.09vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.31-0.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.63Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.44Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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9.58Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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5.8Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.69Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.57Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.38University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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6.27Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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8.78Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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6.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.41SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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12.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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14.25Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| William Haeger | 11.7% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 19.0% | 11.0% | 1.7% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 9.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Connor Needham | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Cam Cullman | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 1.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| James Gardner | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 45.4% | 22.1% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 15.5% | 72.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.