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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+4.55vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.47+5.39vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+3.06vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University4.01+1.79vs Predicted
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5Tufts University4.08+0.69vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+2.15vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.72-0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.51-0.59vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.84+0.54vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.38-2.08vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-4.73vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-3.01vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.60-5.59vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.31+0.29vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.39Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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6.06Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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5.79Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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5.69Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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6.64Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.41University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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9.54Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.99Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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7.41SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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14.29Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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12.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Needham | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Cam Cullman | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| William Haeger | 11.2% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Oliver Toole | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 9.4% | 1.9% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 6.9% | 0.8% |
| Harry Scott | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 17.5% | 71.5% |
| James Gardner | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 10.6% | 44.8% | 23.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.