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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.21vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.47+5.46vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+3.05vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College4.05+1.66vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.38+2.95vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.72+0.73vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.51+0.34vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+0.11vs Predicted
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9Tufts University4.08-3.44vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-4.08vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.82vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.84-2.16vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.11-3.99vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.55+0.11vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.46Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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6.05Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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5.66Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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6.73Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.34University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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8.11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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5.56Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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5.92Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.18SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.84Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.01Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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14.11Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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12.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Connor Needham | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 0.6% |
| William Haeger | 11.0% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 6.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.8% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 19.3% | 66.1% |
| James Gardner | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 38.8% | 27.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.