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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.89+5.13vs Predicted
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2Tufts University4.08+3.45vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.84+6.48vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.51+3.40vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+0.79vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01-0.16vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-0.73vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.72-1.23vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-0.93vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.47-2.33vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.81vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-2.98vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.55+1.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.38-6.17vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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5.45Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.48Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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7.4University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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5.79Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.84Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.77Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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7.67Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.19SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.02Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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14.18Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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12.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Cullman | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| William Haeger | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 17.3% | 9.9% | 1.7% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.0% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Toole | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Connor Needham | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Harry Scott | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 7.1% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 18.5% | 68.3% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| James Gardner | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 42.2% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.