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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.89+5.14vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.51+5.34vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.05+2.61vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.30vs Predicted
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5Tufts University4.08+0.78vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.47+1.68vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.60+0.12vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+0.20vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.70-2.19vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.11-1.04vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University4.01-5.02vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.84-2.00vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.38-4.75vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.55+0.23vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-3.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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7.34University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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5.61Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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5.78Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.68Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.12SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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8.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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6.81Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.96Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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5.98Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.0Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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14.23Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Cullman | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.6% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| William Haeger | 10.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Needham | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Harry Scott | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 1.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 2.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 3.6% |
| Taylor Vann | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 9.2% | 76.9% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 34.7% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.