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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.60+6.16vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.05+3.63vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+3.14vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.28vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.72+1.89vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.51+1.56vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University4.01-1.14vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.11+0.91vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-0.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.38-1.92vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.47-3.34vs Predicted
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12Tufts University4.08-6.14vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-3.08vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.29vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.55-0.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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5.63Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.14Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.89Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.56University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.91Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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8.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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7.66Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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5.86Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.92Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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11.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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14.19Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Scott | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Cam Cullman | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.2% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 1.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 0.6% |
| Connor Needham | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| William Haeger | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 34.7% | 12.1% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 76.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.