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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.07+8.64vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.70+5.19vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+6.07vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.12+5.14vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.56+5.99vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.54+2.49vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.70+3.78vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.930.00vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.16-3.65vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.30-2.89vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.14-1.97vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.05-6.61vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85-2.79vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.58-5.24vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.22-6.15vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.75vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.40-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.64Northeastern University1.074.3%1st Place
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7.19Jacksonville University1.708.8%1st Place
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9.07St. Mary's College of Maryland1.135.3%1st Place
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9.14North Carolina State University1.125.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Vermont0.563.2%1st Place
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8.49Fordham University1.545.8%1st Place
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10.78George Washington University0.702.9%1st Place
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8.0University of Miami1.936.9%1st Place
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5.35U. S. Naval Academy2.1613.8%1st Place
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7.11Webb Institute1.308.8%1st Place
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9.03Cornell University1.144.7%1st Place
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5.39Tulane University2.0513.7%1st Place
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10.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.853.5%1st Place
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8.76Hampton University0.584.3%1st Place
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8.85Old Dominion University1.225.0%1st Place
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13.25Christopher Newport University-0.841.9%1st Place
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11.73Boston University0.402.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dillon | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Raam Fox | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 13.8% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| John Wood | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 33.1% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 17.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.