Race 2B

lark-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marina Garrido 12.5% 12.2% 12.8% 13.3% 14.8% 11.7% 8.6% 6.6% 3.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Sam Ingalls 13.5% 14.1% 15.0% 13.9% 12.8% 10.2% 8.5% 6.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Meredith Broadus 9.2% 9.6% 10.2% 12.8% 12.3% 12.4% 10.3% 9.5% 6.3% 4.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Caroline Keeffe-Jones 4.1% 4.7% 6.5% 5.5% 7.4% 8.9% 11.1% 11.5% 11.3% 11.8% 8.6% 5.9% 2.6%
Connor Macken 17.5% 16.5% 16.4% 14.7% 12.4% 9.1% 6.5% 3.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Drew Mastovsky 27.8% 23.2% 18.1% 13.2% 7.5% 5.3% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sylvia Burns 3.5% 4.7% 4.5% 6.2% 5.8% 8.6% 10.9% 12.4% 13.1% 11.7% 9.8% 6.3% 2.6%
Michael Cunniff 1.4% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0% 4.3% 4.8% 6.2% 7.2% 11.1% 12.3% 14.6% 16.4% 13.2%
Olivia Hogan-Lopez 3.9% 4.7% 4.0% 6.0% 7.6% 8.8% 9.7% 12.3% 12.3% 11.5% 10.8% 6.1% 2.3%
Griffin Stolp 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 4.2% 5.0% 6.1% 8.5% 9.7% 10.2% 12.9% 13.2% 14.6% 8.8%
Rem Johannknecht 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 4.2% 4.8% 6.7% 8.5% 11.1% 14.1% 19.1% 22.0%
Caleb Burt 2.2% 2.6% 3.6% 3.7% 5.0% 7.1% 8.2% 8.2% 11.8% 11.6% 12.8% 13.2% 10.0%
Kathleen Hanson 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% 2.8% 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 6.5% 7.4% 12.2% 16.6% 38.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.